Mathematical Modelling of Radionuclide Migration and Reliability of Natural Systems

Abstract

As a result of the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (ChNPP) in 1986, about 3.5 million hectares of forests in Ukraine fell under radioactive contamination, and the entire forests in Ukraine occupy 9.9 million hectares. Territories of other countries were signi cantly a ected. In addition to Ukraine, the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation, the in uence of the Chornobyl nuclear disaster was felt by Sweden, Norway, Poland, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, Finland, Great Britain and other countries [1{3]. Another signi cant radioactive contamination of the territories was the result of the accident at the nuclear power plant Fukushima-1 in 2011. In general, there were more than 100 serious accidents involving the use of nuclear energy in the whole world, and more than 50 occurred after the Chernobyl disaster. Consequently, the problem of radioactive contamination remains relevant, and the results obtained from the analysis of the Chernobyl catastrophe may be useful for modelling and predicting other similar phenomena. Mathematical modelling is one of the most e ective methods for studying the migration processes of radioactive substances in the environment. The Kyiv school of scientists has proposed a methodology for assessing the radiation state of ecological systems based on the use of mathematical box models, the theory of reliability, and radio capacity parameters assessment.