Mathematical Modelling of Radionuclide Migration and Reliability of Natural Systems

As a result of the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (ChNPP)
in 1986, about 3.5 million hectares of forests in Ukraine fell under radioactive
contamination, and the entire forests in Ukraine occupy 9.9 million hectares.
Territories of other countries were signi cantly a ected. In addition to Ukraine,
the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation, the in
uence of the Chornobyl
nuclear disaster was felt by Sweden, Norway, Poland, Austria, Switzerland,
Germany, Finland, Great Britain and other countries [1{3]. Another
signi cant radioactive contamination of the territories was the result of the
accident at the nuclear power plant Fukushima-1 in 2011. In general, there
were more than 100 serious accidents involving the use of nuclear energy in the
whole world, and more than 50 occurred after the Chernobyl disaster. Consequently,
the problem of radioactive contamination remains relevant, and the
results obtained from the analysis of the Chernobyl catastrophe may be useful
for modelling and predicting other similar phenomena.
Mathematical modelling is one of the most e ective methods for studying
the migration processes of radioactive substances in the environment. The Kyiv
school of scientists has proposed a methodology for assessing the radiation state
of ecological systems based on the use of mathematical box models, the theory
of reliability, and radio capacity parameters assessment.